In fact, for Democrats, the upcoming congressional map is downright depressing.
Here’s the bottom line, according to FiveThirtyEight:
Even if Democrats were to win every single 2018 House and Senate race for seats representing places that Hillary Clinton won or that Trump won by less than 3 percentage points — a pretty good midterm by historical standards — they could still fall short of the House majority and lose five Senate seats.
Why does reality look so bleak for Democrats? Partly because Democrats will be forced to defend 25 of their 48 Senate seats, but Republicans will have to fight for just eight of their 52. However, the report also points out that Democrats have been focusing so much on states like California and New York that the GOP has been able to make gains in real America:
In the last few decades, Democrats have expanded their advantages in California and New York — states with huge urban centers that combined to give Clinton a 6 million vote edge, more than twice her national margin. But those two states elect only 4 percent of the Senate. Meanwhile, Republicans have made huge advances in small rural states — think Arkansas, North and South Dakota, Iowa, Louisiana, Montana and West Virginia — that wield disproportionate power in the upper chamber compared to their populations.
CNN’s Chris Cillizza called the findings “stunning.”
— Chris Cillizza (@CillizzaCNN) August 7, 2017
Others pointed out the obvious:
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) August 7, 2017
I don’t think shouting “RESIST” is going to solve this problemhttps://t.co/OddWqZXC7p
— John Podhoretz (@jpodhoretz) August 7, 2017
It certainly seems like Democrats will have to wait until at least 2020 for any hopes at a comeback.